We made it everyone, we finally made it. I'd like to take a moment and thank everyone who worked so hard to crash the worlds economy and facilitated the insane inflationary growth. 40 baht, here we come.
17,719
views
160
likes
587
all likes
224
replies
11
images
57
users
TLDR : Answer Summary
The conversation highlights concerns among expats regarding inflation and its impact on the Thai Baht's exchange rate against the dollar. Many comments reflect on the historical context of the Baht's value, with some expressing relief at current rates while cautioning about the looming economic conditions. Participants debate the implications of inflation, the US's economic policies, and the effects on living costs in Thailand, ultimately noting that while current dollar strength benefits expats, it simultaneously brings challenges tied to global economic instability.
The dollar becomes more scarce when interest rates rise.
Craig ********
demand for dollars rises but it does not become more scarce.
Craig ********
here is a chart of the money supply of US dollars over time since the 1960. Increasing interest rates increase demand for dollars, but do not affect the supply of dollars.
Craig ********
there is a difference between demand for dollars and the supply of dollars.
Craig ********
interest rates have nothing to do with the money supply
Then US administration decided to boycott Russian oil as a form of punishment.
As usual, Australia and European countries say Amen to uncle Sam!
And since March 8 this year, the world citizens have been feeling American punishment to Russia in THEIR OWN POCKET šš¶
To further handicap world economy, the US Federal Reserve increased interest rates up by 1.75% this year so far and expected to be increased up by 3.75% at end of 2022.
WTF! I better roll me one, find me cheap 6-pack and crash under a tree until things get better š¤£š¤£š¤£
No better place than Thailand to do that. It's impressive however, all of this is uncle Sam's fault. LIke he made Putin invade Ukraine? He made Australia and EU into thoughtless puppets?
There is no one root cause but Covid was a big factor and everybody knows that is a a Chinese ploy to take over the world.
of course no relation to Ukraine or Russia. I simply mentioned it as one of 2 ways used to handicap world economy š
Steve **********
Hadanah The term handicapping I believe is to numerically provide an edge for one of the participants to level a playing field .
With world economy today under WEF, is there need for handicap.
Reply to
Steve **********
Reply
ąøąø°ąø„ąø²ąøŖąøµ *****
Boom Friday morning!!
Oliver ********
I think you might need to re-read a few pages from your high school economics textbook. The USD has strengthened against the THB, EUR, and GBP, despite inflation (which is higher in the US than in Thailand, the Eurozone, and the UK), not because of it, and FX rates are determined by the relative strength of national economies, not the global economy (currency pairs aren't equities).
I think you may be misunderstanding what FX rates are. The strength of the world economy overall is irrelevant. What matters is the RELATIVE strength (or weakness) of each of the national economies underlying those currencies.
Reply to
Oliver ********
Reply
Danny *******
The Dunning-Kruger effect very evident here. š„±
Craig ********
it seems crazy that people spend their lives with money as a major component... working 40 hours a week, the majority of their lives, to make it. Spend it, save it, marriages end because of it.... yet people have no bloody idea what it even is and they certainly don't understand how it works.
indeed.... here is a brain twister i like to ask my friends:
Define "money".
it's rare to even get an answer... usually i just get a stupid look. Other times they try to be cute and say something like "the root of all evil" which is just some cliche they heard but don't understand. And I can related. Until I found bitcoin I could not have given a good answer either. But studying bitcoin led me to study economics. Now I have a pretty good idea of what money is and how it works.
Money is just something that we have all agreed has value and we can trade it for things a person may want or need. Thats all it is, in its most basic form.
Reply to
Merry *******
Reply
Mark ***********
This entire inflationary cycle was started with Trump's insane and unhinged trade war with China.
totally wrong. A simplistic blame game. Trump increased the total deficit by 7 trillion. He spent money like a drunken sailor on shore leave. He was very irresponsible.
The inflationary cycle was created by a biological agent deliberately released from a certain asian country. Everything would be completely normal right now if that never happened. I dont agree with the trade war either, free trade benefits the mass populace and keeps costs low. But I can say categorically that China is the number one problem facing the existence of human civilization.
No, that's a shortsighted emotion-driven Biden voter conclusion. Utter nonsense.
Reply to
Edgar ************
Reply
Mark ***********
Trump spent government money like a drunk sailor.
Mark ***********
Again, brain dead diatribes, without any fact checking. Giving away trillions in covid relief without asking anything in return was the dumbest thing a president has done since Watergate. The annual inflation rates for dozens and dozens of goods routinely purchased by American households - including food - were already at their highest levels in a decade before Biden entered the White House early last year.
That's in large part because of the COVID-19 relief spending enacted under Republican Donald Trump's administration with overwhelming Republican support in the Senate. It exceeds what Democrats have allocated so far by roughly $1 trillion.
That money kept household balance sheets intact during the crisis and allowed consumers to keep spending despite double-digit unemployment. Moreover, household savings rocketed to unprecedented levels, providing tinder for more spending on activities like dining out and travel once those became widely available again.
You do know that a weak currency actually BENEFITS many people, right? For years, businesses have been leaving Thailand and going to neighbours instead because of the exchange rates, among other people.
A weaker currency will mean more exports, and more tourists, helping some of the poorer people in the country. A weaker currency will help give the economy a much-needed shot in the arm because people will bring more foreign currency into the country.
All this time a strong baht has been affecting people's incomes, have you spoken out for those suffering?
To the best of my knowledge, there isnāt a person here who has an ability to impact the exchange rate by even one Satong.
There is no lack of compassion in celebrating oneās own good fortune in circumstances where one had zero control over outcomes.
Given the state of the world today, with cruel injustice everywhere, you would have us all in a continual state of scowling self-denial, if not full-on self-flagellation.
But virtue-signaling has its limits, and even the most compassionate among us are permitted to celebrate from time to time. Lighten up, Francis!
The OP is using a poor country to their advantage and yelling at the horrors of the world while taking a 1kā¬ flight to a country where their dollar goes more. At the same time, they are blaming the world and others.
Feh, I stand by my words.
Thanks for letting me know what kind of a person you are.
You certainly woke up on the judgemental side of the bed this morning. Since youāre claiming to be a compassionate person, I would hope you might have learned to argue a point instead of sarcasticly attacking another personās character in your first breath.
I guess you skipped the day in Compassion School where they discussed the evils of ad hominem attacks.
I hope we never meet up as well. I have little patience with judgemental hypocrites, and you sound a lot like one.
Reply to
Paul ********
Reply
Sandra ***********
USD and EURO will soon be the same it seems
Nick **********
Yep, they've done a stellar job screwing everything up.
So you donāt think the countless suicides, hundreds of millions who faced and will face food shortages because of lockdowns mean squat?
How about the 30k people the UKās NIH estimated would die because they missed cancer treatments due to lockdowns?
How about the millions that will die in the coming decade due to the global recession and inflation thatās only getting started?
If you think the mortality rate of widespread poverty and food shortages is trivial, go do some reading on various famines and major economic downturns in recent history.
Itās estimated that the Great Depression, only in the US, caused 7 million deaths and that was at a time when the US population was less than a third of what it is now.
By your line of thinking, I guess youāll have to tell their families that someone elseās life was worth more because reasons.
whoever has more than the money they need for day to day operations in the bank is a fool. they are stealing from anyone who holds money. A tax no one has a say in. It's that simple.
Craig ********
that's right.... this is why the smartest people I know store their wealth in bitcoin, not a bank and certainly not in a fiat currency
well, not sold on bitcoin. I bought gold at 1800 and it's 1824 now. I bought bitcoin at 50k and it's 30k now. It is more of a speculative asset than a store of value. Maybe in 30 years it might be used for real trade, but until then it's the same as tesla stock, without a company backing it...
If you are "not sold on bitcoin" it probably indicates a lack of study and education on the subject. In my experience the more a person learns about bitcoin they less they worry about short term volatility.
yes, no one knows you're right about that. But one thing I'm absolutely convinced of, Bitcoin is either going into the millions per coin, or to 0... there is no in-between for it.
Time will tell. I've done my homework and placed my bets. Time to let the market do it's thing
agreed, just got a notice it crashed to 20 k. People are selling because they want/need to cash to live. Hyperinflation is next once all that fake stock market money gets spent on stuff. the end is nigh. The only thing that didn't sell off dramatically over the last 2 months... gold. I don't own gold to make a profit, FYI.
retail investors are not selling. We can see exactly what the small investors are doing because bitcoin's ledger is public. What's happening now is institutional liquidations from companies that trick people into giving them their bitcoin for a yield.
next 2 yrs the fed will be destroing so many people lifes and noone can do nothing about it, all these fed policies are for decreasing the gap even more between 1percenters and middleclass, they pushing for depression not recession, and will buy out on the bottom with strongest usd ever
we will see. I bought both. Gold has been money since ancient egypt, bitcoin has been "money" since never. but we will see, I'm not anti bitcoin. It might revolutionize the world once it has real price discovery, which might be impossible. If the global order crashes, people will still want gold. Bitcoin, probably not. You can't trade bitcoin without electricity and internet. if the currency crashes and bitcoin replaces it, those who have it now will rule the world.
without ammo you cannot hunt and you will likely starve to death if the power goes out for an extended period of time. Do you have any idea how much food you have to grow to feed a family for a year using a garden?
I can harvest one elk and get 220 pounds of meat.
Brainwashed by whom? My father, who taught me how to hunt for my food when I was a child? I find this comment a little insulting, until I realize that you are just ignorant of how nature actually works.
USD strong, THB weak. Higher inflation imported especially energy sector with refinery oil priceā¦I hope Bank of Thailand will raise the interest rate follow FED tonight soon. Otherwise crazier and higher inflation here.
When the world stops trading in dollars, it will be a sad day for USA. Covid dollar inflation is the cause of this. US created 16 trillion in new money during 2020. they deserve to crash. And I am a proud american, but the government is terrible and the people are stupid to let them do it.
The only brainwashing going on here is the fact that you've been taught to hate your country and hate free markets. You know what the opposite of free markets is? No, you probably don't.
USD increased by 400%. THB increased by 25%. No other country except China and the European could increase like that without causing a financial collapse.
this is absolutely incorrect. here you can see M2 supply increase since march 2020 (covid) Also by percentage japan, EU, and BoE have all printed more. China undoubtedly printed more but they do not publish that data so we don't really know.
I look at M1 because that is the high velocity, liquid money that can cause rapid inflation. M2 doesn't change hands as quickly. And according to stlouis fed, it went from 4 trillion to 20 trillion since covid. And it makes sense because trumps covid bailout was a few trillion and biden's was 6 trillion. They just sent that cash to everybody, businesses big and small all got bailed out. All that new money chasing the same pool of goods. If you look at the rise in M2, it seems less dramatic but M1 shows the mess we made. It's hard to know exactly what's going to happen but as a general rule, tripling the cash supply is something you should only do of your trying to destroy your country.
yes, agreed. Money supply doubled from 2 to 4 trillion after financial crises but during covid shot to 20 f@#king trillion. hyperinflation is inevitable. get out of USD asap
Except I should have booked our flights months ago. Our flight has gone from $1250 to $1800. Gonna roll the dice and hope it comes down in the next 6 months so we can book or look for another destination š¬.
Good luck with that. The WEF and global governance is more powerful now than ever before in human history. With survalence tech, social credit systems, and CBDC's becoming part of life in many countries, there is little to nothing we can do other than buy Bitcoin and try to survive it.
Craig ********
Yes disarming the populace makes things easier. But if you're planning an armed insurrection you're probably going to have a bad day. There is little to nothing that can be done at this point.
Buy bitcoin, try to find some land where you have good access to food and water, learn to hunt, start a garden, get some chickens, stockpile ammo.... try to survive it. Sadly that's the best advice I've heard. Cause you sure as shit aint going to overthrow the WEF. They have coordinated nearly every government on Earth at this point. All playing along with them. This will not end well. They know they have to self-destruct the financial system or the elites risk going down with it. So that's exactly what they are doing. Systematically destroyed the global economy and preparing for "The Great Reset". If you think you can stop it, God speed my friend.
What good is that bitcoin going to be if you are living in a bunker on some remote mountain top off the grid, if there is still one? š
Craig ********
for 10,000 years Gold was used for this purpose because governments cannot simply create it from nothing, instead they have to invest significant capital (proof of work) to find and extract it. But Gold has many problems as a "money".. it is not very divisible, it is not easily verified, it is not portable, and it currently has a 2% inflation rate.
Bitcoin is a 10x improvement over Gold as a form of money, a treasury asset, and a store of value. It is infinitely divisible, globally portable with nothing more than 12 words you memorize and keep in your head, uncensorable, fungible, easily verifiable, and absolutely scarce.
A visa transaction takes about 2 months to fully settle. Bitcoin settles in an average of 5 minutes. It cannot be controlled by any central bank or government.
If you do not see the value in such a thing.... well. I don't know what else to say
Craig ********
Humans have a very serious fundamental problem which is that no one can be trusted to control the supply of money. Every fiat currency that has ever existed has been debased. With the discovery of bitcoin we finally have absolute scarcity in a decentralized network that cannot be debased. The importance of this discovery cannot be underestimated.
My plan is to keep doing what has been working for me, which is a diversified stock portfolio that nets me, along with my Social Security, about $???k a year. I can live quite well here in Thailand on that and most other places if I chose to move.
an S&P position will guard you against inflation, so that works. Great. Good for you I'm glad you've got enough money for now.
Since the covid (march 2020) low S&P is up 73%. Bitcoin is up 450% in that time.
So great. I never said bitcoin was the only investment there is. I only said it was the best one. If you have enough to hold an asset that goes up basically as fast as inflation, then great. And in Thailand even better since the THB is getting destroyed against the dollar.
Moving to Thailand was part of my strategy as well.
started buying remote property in 2005. Been hunting all my life. don't really like gardening, but then I eat 90% meat or animal products these days anyway. My father gave me my first rifle for my 13th birthday. Main property has well and septic. What else you want to know?
it's taxed as capital gains just like any asset or commodity. There is nothing special about tax filing on bitcoin. Also please note I said Bitcoin, not crypto.
I'm not sure what you are saying. Are you saying if you buy one unit of Bitcoin, hold it long-term and then sell it you have a simple long-term capital gain? That would be true but if you buy a hamburger and fries or pay your rent with your crypto account you have quite a different story.
Yes, if you buy bitcoin and later sell it you incur either short or long term capital gains taxes, depending on how long you held it.
But why do you need to buy McDonalds with your Bitcoin? If you really want to, you just have to account for the sale of the bitcoin. But that would be dumb. If you really want to liquidate some, you sell a chunk, account for the gains on it, and then buy however much burgers you want.
It's no different than gold in that respect. But it's better than gold in almost every other way.
That's fine if you are willing to sell in big chunks and keep track of the basis in the chunk you sold, which isn't simple. But I know people who advocate using crypto as their cash account and keeping everything in crypto, selling it constantly as they pay expenses. That's an accounting nightmare of the tax preparer and at your expense.
I am not willing to sell any Bitcoin at all. That's the absolutely worst thing you can do with Bitcoin is to sell it in 2023. People who advocate "crypto" or using it to pay expenses don't know what they're doing. I am talking about buying Bitcoin, and then holding it long into the future. I am not talking about "crypto" and I am not talking about buying burgers.
Fine, but most people I talk to that are cult fans of digital currencies are using it like cash looking to makes a few bucks in their everyday currency accounts. What you are describing is no different than buying a share of stock. Both can be a hedge against inflation or a long-term investment. Nothing new there.
What I am saying is there is no difference in the way they are treated for tax purposes when managed the way you have described. I did not say they were equal investments in terms of risk, volatility and investment strategy, just that they were both vehicles that can be used as inflation hedges and/or long-term investments.
ok yes, they are the same in terms of the taxation. But I can send any amount of bitcoin to any other human on the planet instantly without any government, central bank, or other 3rd party being able to stop me.
yes many people think they cannot afford to buy bitcoin... the truth is they cannot afford not to. Gotta find a way to scratch together something, anything, and get in. Try using less toilet paper, less toothpaste, sell blood... gotta do what you gotta do if you want to survive the global financial collapse that is coming.
yes itās a hedge against inflation 5555 cash is trash
Reply to
Jon **********
Reply
Jason ********
Arnie ************
For me, one bright spot of an otherwise dim set of actions.
Have *******
Lol
Will ************
Markets are starting to price in a
***
per cent interest rise in the US.
Brandon ************
Thanks Brexit for bringing the Ā£ so low to the dollar also š
Gordon *******
Not Brexit, it's a world problem Brandon
Reply to
Gordon *******
Reply
Kristian ***************
"Thank everyone you say". You mean every Politician!
James **********
Meanwhile the UK pound goes the other way. WTF
Michael *******
Max **********
The american dollar is gonna crash eventually. The amount of money they printed was absurd. Everybody got free money. Itās funny how the US blames other countries of manipulating their currency, yet they do the same.
We are talking about the USD, printing money and manipulation.
It doesnāt really matter. USD is the safe heaven currency and will continue to be so until China can actually reach GDP per capita of the US. Hint: itās not even close.
American here, I don't blame anyone else except for the American government. Printing out 40% of every dollar that's ever been printed in the last 12 months is going to cripple everyone's economy. It's not just absurd it's treason.
Youāre looking at the wrong indicator. Itās GDP to Debt Ratio. US with a $21 trillion economy actually has a lower GDP to Debt ratio than other countries like Singapore and Japan.
the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with it? You yourself acknowledged the Fed raised rates IN RESPONSE TO inflation, so obviously donāt control it, so your view, sir, is myopic. Good day.
the economy is doing well by many measures? So inflation, rising costs, food shortages and record falls in stocks are signs of a strong economy right? You are either an utter moron or deliberately ignoring the piss right in front of you.
Enjoy it while it lasts. Many countries around the world ditching the Petro dollar and I believe it's days as the world's reserve currency are numbered.
recently I would agree with you but now oh, you think the world is going to turn to the Russian ruble? The Chinese Yuan ? The euro? At this point I think not
as they own a large chunk of dollar debt don't rule anything out. The Fed can only print so much monopoly money before the bubble bursts. The British pound was once the world's reserve currency until their empire crumbled.
oooof I thought I had it good then! Iām not the most knowledgeable on exchange rates etc only the basics, but I know weāre definitely in trouble š¤£
Ah yes, the sky is falling yet again huh Chicken Little?
Reply to
Danny *******
Reply
AxMdob *******
You have better deals in others country just near just near but if you love spend money this one is good for you
Sam *********
there have been periods where the exchange rate has been 1 dollar to 57 baht, while this is a bit higher than average for sure, its certainly nothing unheard of. In fact, as recently as 2017, it was very close to the 35 mark as well...hardly unprecedented territory
Sam *********
it was, during the Tom Yum crisis...early 98, you can check exchange records.